2020 NFL SEASON QB GRADES
WEEK 4
WEEK 5 TNF PREVIEW - BUCCANEERS (-3.5) @ BEARS
For no other reason than the desire to say something different about Tom Brady, I wish I had something different to say about Tom Brady. But the ageless wonder is no worse off in his new uniform, in fact, in many ways he looks significantly better in Tampa than he had in recent seasons with the Patriots.
For starters, Zombie Brady’s overall movement appears more fluid and his arm seems generally more lively than last season. But the real x-factor here is Bruce Arians and his vertical passing scheme. Even without a full complement of weapons available, Arians has Brady attacking downfield at such a noticeable rate that “air yards” have almost become cliché already in the analysis of “Tompa” Brady.
The stats in this area are impossible to ignore: In 2018 and 2019 under Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels, Tom Brady averaged a consistent 5.6 air yards per completed pass average and around 7.7 air yards per attempt. In just four games this season, those numbers have leaped to 7 air yards per completion and 8.6 air yards per attempt. It’s reasonable to assume that with Evans and Godwin both simultaneously healthy, those numbers would be even higher.
The result is a version of the QB that leaps off the screen as noticeably different than late-stage New England Brady. He is both getting opportunities to attack vertically and succeeding in those opportunities so far this season. The ease of Tampa’s comeback from down 24-7 against the Chargers and their surprising rookie Justin Herbert last week is only the most recent reminder that the man can still inspire fear in the minds of opposing NFL defenses. And is currently doing so.
Far less scary is the offensive unit of the 3-1 Bears, who have already endured a high-profile QB change from Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles. The sample size is far too small to this point for a confident analysis of what Foles is in 2020, but his explanation for why things didn’t go so well in his first start of the season last week was believable while watching the game again.
Foles was the first to admit that his timing and rhythm were off, a side effect of a bizarre offseason acclimating to his new team and lack of first team reps so far this year. The typically confident player of past Super Bowl glory did manage to flash a couple of times against the Colts and their league-best defense, though, and did in fact seem slightly out of rhythm, more like a half-beat late, for most of that game. He better find it fast, as the Tampa defense he’s facing tonight has been underappreciated and highly effective so far this season and has the pass rush capability to make finding a comfortable rhythm in this game a challenging endeavor.
The Bucs should win this game, even possibly without Mike Evans. Ronald Jones is playing the best football of his career so far, the pass rushing combination of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh is legitimately formidable as a unit and Brady is not only looking good this season, he’s looking better and more comfortable every week. The Bears path to victory is through a next-level performance from Nick Foles in the white hot lights of prime time, a feat we know he is generally capable of, but hasn’t demonstrated in quite some time now.
