2019 NFL QB GRADES WEEK 6

TOP 10

REST OF THE PACK

NON-QUALIFYING QBS

MASS QB FAILURE

With Marcus Mariota being replaced by Ryan Tannehill this week and Jameis Winston hitting career rock bottom with a 5 interception performance in London, it seems apropos to close the book on the 2015 QB class. Winston and Mariota were of course both highly coveted at the time and ultimately went #1 and #2 overall in that draft. But the end result has become all too familiar: failure. In fact, we are increasingly embroiled in a mass QB failure situation, even if the hype around QB prospects and high first round picks is as frenzied as it has ever been.

By my count, there have only been 6 first round hits at the QB position in the last decade. Granted that's a subjective label, but in trying to keep it simple, I'll describe a "hit" as a QB that solved their franchise's QB situation by the end of their rookie contract. If the answer is "maybe" then they are not a "hit." If the answer is "definitively not," even if that QB is still playing every week (IE Winston), then the QB is a "fail." Here's the complete list of hit/maybe/fails from the last decade of first round QBs:

HIT

Matthew Stafford

Cam Newton

Andrew Luck

Carson Wentz

Deshaun Watson

Pat Mahomes

MAYBE

Jared Goff

Mitchell Trubisky

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Sam Darnold

Baker Mayfield

Kyler Murray

Daniel Jones

Dwayne Haskins

FAIL

Josh Freeman

Mark Sanchez

Tim Tebow

Sam Bradford

Christian Ponder

Blaine Gabbert

Jake Locker

Brandon Weeden

Ryan Tannehill

Robert Griffin

EJ Manuel

Teddy Bridgewater

Johnny Manziel

Blake Borles

Marcus Mariota

Jameis Winston

Paxton Lynch

Josh Rosen

Josh Rosen and Teddy Bridgewater are not closed cases, but neither solved the QB issue for the team that drafted them so for the purposes of this conversation, they get thrown into the "fail" category.

Overall the lists above draw a pretty bleak picture, saved only by the four remaining and all very promising "maybe" players from the 2018 Draft. Especially considering the fact that of the measley 6 players that qualify as definite "hits," one is retired and another, Cam Newton, no longer appears to be the future answer for the Panthers.

Unsurprisingly, the later rounds have provided extremely little salvation. Several cases, including Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles have become legitimately intriguing starting options, but only Cousins hit that mark with the team that drafted him and Washington blatantly refused to consider him their long-term solution. That leaves an extremely limited (and frankly generous) list of "maybes" from Rounds 2-7 over the last decade:

Andy Dalton

Derek Carr

Dak Prescott

Gardner Minshew

...with only one clear "hit," Russell Wilson.

Despite all of this, tanking for a high first round QB has become a part of basically every NFL season and reaching for QBs in round one is at least as common, if not more common, than it has ever been. This strange disconnect between expectations and reality may be in part to blame for the mass failure situation. QBs succeed in stable situations, and the "savior QB" is not really a thing in the modern NFL.

Of the 7 QB "hits" from the draft in the last decade, the only player who stepped into a blatantly horrible situation was Matthew Stafford. Meanwhile, Cam Newton walked into a Panthers team that was over .500 in 4 of the 6 prior seasons, Mahomes stepped into a playoff situation, as did Watson. Wentz and Wilson were both allowed to grow quickly into roles that were not pushed on them and both had the chance to develop under excellent head coaches. Once again, QBs thrive in stability.

There is also a perception issue contributing to this. We are all, fans and media alike, harder than ever on QBs. Not only is there impatience and a lack of thought given to the context of struggles, realities about some QBs are flat out ignored. Marcus Mariota is an excellent example, even if he earned his benching over the last several weeks. If he retired today, he would have a higher career passer rating than Andrew Luck. He's led the Titans to the playoffs and has made numerous standout clutch plays in late game, late season situations over the course of his short career so far. And this is only his fifth season in the league. Marcus Mariota definitely has strengths, but the Titans failed to capitalize on them while also failing to provide stability of offensive coaching or reliable playmaking weapons in the offense. Even I admit that he has been a failure, but the situation is complex and very few allow for complexity to enter into these bottom line coversations.

The hope is that the 2018 class of Mayfield, Darnold, Allen and Jackson help reverse this trend. And that rising prospects Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and eventually Trevor Lawrence continue to buck it. But organizational stability is far more important that draft position (ask the Texans or Chiefs) if you're a franchise looking to find a "hit" in the first round moving forward.