The football world is still recovering from a classic National Championship game that saw Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson turn in an unforgettable MVP performance. Much has been made of him in the media this week as a potential top-of-the-draft prospect, and several QB-needy fan bases have already begun to express excitement at the idea of selecting him. I've already seen him mocked as high as 3rd overall.
While I agree that he is a top prospect, it may come as a surprise to many that most NFL teams simply don't concur. As recently as this week, rumors have suggested that only a small percentage of pro franchises see him as a late first round pick, most have him in the second or third round range and others have as low as a fourth round grade on him. Perplexing? Maybe. But there are three sticking points when it comes to the pro scouts:
1. Accuracy - I've said it before, accuracy is the most important non-mental trait for a quaterback prospect, and many scouts see this as his primary weakness. He threw 30 interceptions over the last two seasons, a surprising number considering the safe nature of many of the throws demanded of him in the Clemson offense. He's also been inconsistent at times with his accuracy downfield, leading to some notable misses that stand out on film. His 67.4 career completion percentage is certainly impressive and seems to undercut some of these concerns. But the experts would reply that Clemson's short passing scheme inflated those numbers.
2. Lack of snaps under center - It is not an uncommon situation for many college quaterbacks these days, but Watson took virtually every single snap of his college career from the shotgun. There is undeniably a signficant amount of timing and footwork development from under center ahead of him if he will pan out as a professional quarterback.
3. Frame - At 6'2" and 209 pounds, Watson is defintely on the low end of the optimal window when it comes to size in a pro prospect. He is not particularly broad or thick for his size, and NFL evaluators question his ability to stay healthy while employing his natural style of quarterbacking on Sundays. He is also the smallest and slightest QB among the top prospects in this class.
While I understand and even agree with these critiques, I certainly don't think they should knock him any further than the first few picks of the second round. Honestly, they are what keeps me from saying he should be the number one pick. But I am still of the opinion that the top 15 is not really a reach for him, especially for a QB-desperate franchise.
The accuracy issues don't bother me as much as they might in another prospect because I have seem him make incredibly accurate throws in big-time spots over and over again. Lack of consistency may actually be the better way to describe the fault here, as he has unquestionably had sloppy lapses over the course of his college career. But they are usually because of his fearless aggressiveness as a passer, his willingness to take risks and his belief in giving his wide receivers a chance to make plays in one-on-one situations. One could easily consider each of these positive attributes, although he will need to learn to be more careful with the ball at the next level.
He also takes responsibility for his mistakes and is unbelievably accomplished in bouncing back from his errors. You will not see him hanging his head or blaming his teammates on the field. And he consistently seems to move forward from his mistakes without demonstrating trepidation in ensuing drives.
The under-center thing is also a tired knock in the modern NFL. Plenty of shotgun-exclusive quarterbacks as collegians have made fast first-year adjustments in under-center systems as pros. The list includes Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin, Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott. Making the adjustment depends more on mental ability and work ethic than anything else, and Watson just happens to be a model prospect in these two areas.
Finally, his size doesn't bother me all that much either, but might be the most concerning knock of the three. His size roughly matches or exceeds that of Teddy Bridgewater, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson coming out, and he has shown an ability to keep himself safe through nifty escapability at Clemson.
The National Championship game only solidified my stance on Watson as the top quarterback prospect in this year's draft. I don't anticipate my evaluation changing much between now and the draft. Just don't be surprised if this is not what you hear from those in the know as we approach April.
Get To Know Patrick Mahomes
Remember the name of Texas Tech junior Patrick Mahomes, as he will be the biggest mover in the quarterback class as the evaluations ramp up in the coming months. He has good size at 6'3", 229 pounds, a truly remarkable arm (he can thank his father, former MLB pitcher Pat Mahomes for this gift) and excellent athleticism.
I've done a little bit of a deep dive on his 2016 film this week and my goodness are there flashes. He is an extremely creative passer, regularly attempting outrageous throws from all sorts of positions on the field and employing a range of arm angles more reminiscent of a slick shortstop than a quarterback. He was also the unquestioned leader of a pass-happy Texas Tech offense that put up a boatload of points this season. Most notable was the 59 point total he hung on Oklahoma in a loss at home. But much like DeShone Kizer, these losses piled up in his time at Texas Tech. He was 12-13 in his two full years as a starter.
My initial grade on Mahomes from catching limited Texas Tech action the past two years was around the fourth round. But the tape reveals a player that looks much more like a round 2 or 3 prospect. I have noted before that the gap between the top QBs in this class (Deshaun Watson, Mitch Trubisky & DeShone Kizer) and the rest of the field is so wide that it will inflate the final draft value of the top group. I still believe this is the case, but I now have to throw Mahomes in with the top tier ahead of the big drop off.
It will not surprise me if we start hearing that teams have Mahomes graded ahead of Deshaun Watson and even into the first round. At this time, I do not see the first round as a reasonable spot for him, especially considering the talent available on the defensive side of the ball in this draft. But demand is a funny thing when it comes to QBs and after what we've seen in recent years, nothing would really surprise me when it comes to Mahomes.