Dak Prescott: Game Manager
So what are we supposed to make of this mega rookie season from Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott? I've struggled with the proper way to communicate my thoughts on where he stands and what to expect moving forward for weeks now, but I've landed on what I think is a suitable comparison. Enter Alex Smith.
Oh and yes, enter the term 'game manager,' which I believe correctly applies to both of these players. And is no insult by the way. Successful game managing is winning football, and it's not nearly as easy as it seems. I have in the past called Alex Smith's 2015 season the best year from a game manager we've seen in the recent pass-happy history of the league. Here's what it looked like:
Alex Smith 2015 season: 307/470, 65.3%, 3,486 yards, 20 TDs, 7 INTs, 95.4 QB rating, 11 wins
Pretty impressive. That passer rating was good for tenth in the league and oh yea he only led a ten game win streak to close the season. But we also all saw what he was asked to do on a week-to-week basis in a quick hitting, conservative passing scheme, and the load was far less substantial than that carried by the elite QB class. Another indicator is the Chiefs run/pass balance for the season (473 passes vs. 436 runs), near to even in a league that features very pass heavy numbers for almost every single team. Now let's take a peek at Dak Prescott's stellar rookie line:
Dak Prescott 2016 season: 311/459, 67.8%, 3,667 yards, 23 TDs, 4 INTs, 104.9 rating, 13 wins
Remarkably similar but clearly superior across the board. It's safe to say that Dak's season was better, but the pass attempt similarity betrays a similar role in a run-first offense. As does Dallas' run/pass balance; the Cowboys were one of only two teams in the NFL this season (along with the Bills) to run more times than they passed (499 runs vs. 483 passes). Let's compare this with the offensive totals from some of the league's "elite" QB situations: Patriots (550 pass/482 run), Falcons (537/421), Raiders (596/434), Steelers (596/409), Lions (594/350), Packers (620/374).
None of those teams listed above have run-first offenses or game-managing quarterbacks, which is why their game plans are so significantly pass-heavy. This was simply not the case for Dak Prescott this season, save for maybe Weeks 15 and 16, in which he was asked to attack a little more and thrived as a result.
Which brings me to my final point: Prescott has already flashed the potential to become more than a game-managing quarterback. And he just had perhaps the greatest game managing season in recent history. In no way am I condemning him to a career of Alex Smith comparisons. I am simply acknowledging that his role in the Cowboys offense this season has been far closer to "game manager" than "offense carrier," and that he really isn't in the conversation of the best and most valuable QBs in the game YET. Especially considering the fantastic offensive line and running back he was supported by.
If any Cowboy fans are still reading at this point and their heads haven't exploded, here's another one for you: Troy Aikman would have killed for a season like the one Dak just enjoyed. Here's Aikman's best year:
Troy Aikman 1993 season: league-leading 69.1%, 15 TDs, 6 INTs, 99.0 rating
Inferior in total and nearly across the board to Prescott's 2016 campaign. And in that year, Dallas was one of only eight teams to run more times than they threw it (490 run vs. 475 pass) with Emmitt Smith claiming league MVP honors (Hmm). They also went on to win the Super Bowl (Hmmmmm).
The more fascinating question is how Dallas will play it in these playoffs. Two possibilities are seemingly on the table. In the first, the Cowboys turn more toward their obvious strength in running the ball, and Dak's role as a game manager will only be more evident. Or Dallas could try to surprise with a more aggressive game plan riding the momentum of Prescott's recent strides and increase his role in the game plan. The latter would certainly be the riskier ploy, but the Cowboys have also been a very attack-minded club this year.