TD SCOUTING

View Original

The Great MVP Debate

There has been plenty of debate about the MVP race this week and deservedly so, as we saw extremely impressive seasons from the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks. Now it is certainly true that everyone has their own definition of value. This is why I always start with the cold hard objectivity of statistics and work back to the "eye test" and my "gut feeling." So follow me, if you will, on a deep dive into the production of six MVP contenders, beginning with their total stats.

The overall numbers give an edge to Matt Ryan, whose eye-popping completion percentage, quarterback rating and especially yards per attempt average (an NFL single-season record, besting Aaron Rodgers otherworldly 9.2 from 2011) are truly MVP worthy. But I like to put in my due diligence and, as we all know, football is a situational game. Season totals don't always tell the whole story and I can be swayed by undeniable greatness in a few specific stat categories. 

I've found that an MVP-level QB is relied upon most heavily in five easily-measurable areas: on third down, in the fourth quarter, in the red zone, when trailing, and on the road. Let's take a fair look at the field again, this time through the lens of these categories.

This is the first area where the Tom Brady line starts to pop off the page, as his phenomenal QB rating on third downs was significantly better than the others. Matt Ryan pops again in the completion percentage category, which was remarkably higher than his season average by more than a point. And then there's Aaron Rodgers' 89 conversions, a betrayal of the fact that he spent more time in these third down situations than the others and excelled. 

Third down statistics best exemplify how challenging it is for the defense to stop a quarterback over the full course of a season. And good third down efficiency so often leads to positive results in crunch time and the win column. But the next category, fourth quarter efficiency, is probably the one most analysts turn to when they're breaking down the splits in an MVP race.

Yes you read right, Matthew Stafford had eight game winning drives. Which is really the biggest reason why he is in this conversation. Similarly, Derek Carr's seven game winning drives is also his brightest resume point, and Dak Prescott's overall fourth quarter performance is downright shocking. Even considering this, Aaron Rodgers was probably the best overall fourth quarter QB in the league, although Tom Brady was also excellent if not often challenged. Lack of competitive fourth quarters also held Matt Ryan's numbers back a bit.

So that just muddied the water right up. Suddenly all six QBs have arguments and nobody is clearly standing out.

I love this often-overlooked category and my goodness do we have some greatness here. A team is most in need of their quarterback when trailing and is often without the luxury of optimal run/pass balance or favorable coverages in these scenarios. And yet our MVP group excelled anyway almost across the board, with Matthew Stafford as the lone straggler.

The rookie Dak Prescott threw NO INTERCEPTIONS when trailing this season. Brady and Ryan each eclipsed 115 passer ratings and Matt Ryan AVERAGED FIRST DOWN YARDAGE PER ATTEMPT in this predicament. Carr and Rodgers were also downright fantastic playing from behind. So still no outlier...

...But score another tally each for Brady and Rodgers in the red zone, as they were the clear best players in the critical area this season. Here's a spot where an "eye test" is an easy tiebreaker: Rodgers' red zone play was the secret ingredient in Green Bay's season ending win streak and he is pretty clearly the toughest stop in that area when it comes to actually watching these games. 

Just when you thought it was safe to step off the Matt Ryan bandwagon, his road splits have to pull you right back in as he was almost exactly as good away from home in 2016 as he was in his own building. There's also a slight knock on Rodgers' case here, even though he was far from bad on the road, he was clearly a step beneath Ryan and Brady. And then there's Tom Brady again, who went 7-0 away from New England and didn't throw a pick in any of those games.

What to make of all of this? Well, the splits don't point to a landslide win for Matt Ryan. They certainly don't eliminate him either. When the advanced numbers offer inconclusive results, I happily turn back to the overall totals as well as the "eye test" and "gut feeling" areas. Ryan holds an edge in all of these categories in my assessment. Rodgers was sublime and felt like the MVP...for six of sixteen games. Brady looked as good as ever but was absent for four games, games in which his backup excelled and the offense looked dominant. I don't think many doubt that the Pats would have won ten games without him, and if we're talking value here, that's a pretty legitimate knock. 

From start to finish this season, Matt Ryan looked and performed like the MVP. He set a single season stat record. He had the top passer rating by a wide margin. He had no multi-interception games. And he led by far the league's most potent scoring offense (Atlanta scored 540 points in 2016, almost a full hundred more than the second place Pats at 441).

But the deep dive was well worth it because it highlights just how strong of a case Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady each have, as well as the gap between Ryan, Rodgers, Brady and the rest of the field. In fact, if you tally how many of these advanced categories each of the six MVP candidates actually led, you get this:

  1. Tom Brady - 12
  2. Matt Ryan - 10
  3. Aaron Rodgers - 8
  4. Dak Prescott - 3
  5. Matthew Stafford - 2
  6. Derek Carr - 0

The beauty of the thing is you can make up your own mind about what the numbers and your eyes told you this season. I for one think that Matt Ryan will not actually win, as the star power of Rodgers or Brady will ultimately attract more votes. Or maybe the QBs split the vote and Ezekiel Elliott claims the thing (would be an unfortunate situation in my opinion). But what say you? Leave a comment! Or send me a tweet @Producer_Tom.