Tony Romo was expected to hit free agency and immediately become the most sought-after available quarterback on the market. There were two obvious front runners for his services in the eyes of the fans and the media. The Broncos and Texans both appear to be teams ready to win now and in need of a quarterback. I was initially very skeptical of either team's realistic interest in the effort it would take to bring in the high-risk former Cowboy. However, on Thursday the Texans paid Cleveland a second round pick to get Brock Osweiler away from Houston and Denver discussed a Trevor Siemian deal with the Jets. Suddenly I'm convinced of both team's intentions.
If a trade deal doesn't work out and Romo hits the open market, more teams will be obviously be in play. Earlier in the week I put together a brainstorm of every seemingly feasible destination for the QB. Here is the result of that brainstorm, with the pros and cons of each situation.
THE OBVIOUS
Denver Broncos
- PRO - Recently won with an aging and limited veteran quarterback
- PRO - Quality offensive weapons in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders & CJ Anderson
- PRO - A championship caliber defense
- CON - Truly bad offensive line
- CON - Two young quarterbacks that the organization likes already rostered
- CON - A new regime including a first-year head coach and the loss of Wade Phillips
Houston Texans
- PRO - DeAndre Hopkins
- PRO - Above average ground game led by Lamar Miller
- PRO - A good, offensive minded head coach
- PRO - A top defense
- CON - Brock Osweiler's large contract is guaranteed for this season
- CON - Moving forward with Romo will force GM Rick Smith and Bill O'Brien to admit to making a major mistake in signing Osweiler
Update 3/10: I was wrong to doubt it, as both the Texans and the Broncos look to be attempting a leap at short-term glory by focusing their efforts on cutting the free agency line and acquiring Romo via trade. A trade to either of these teams seems to be a great fit with Jerry Jones' intentions of dealing Romo to the AFC. It also appears that Jerry Jones has pulled out of an agreement to allow Romo to hit free agency in exchange for an agreed upon list of forbidden destinations. Logic dictates that if the Broncos and Texans topped his list of target teams, Romo may have given his blessing to a trade, leading us to where we currently stand.
THE FASCINATING
Kansas City Chiefs
- PRO - Team seems to a QB away from the next step
- PRO - Very solid offensive weapons including Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill
- PRO - Tenacious, play-making defense
- CON - Andy Reid likes Alex Smith
Arizona Cardinals
- PRO - David Johnson is in the elite tier of running backs and excellent in pass game
- PRO - Larry Fitzgerald is back and John Brown and Jermaine Gresham are solid secondary options
- PRO - Defense, while not what it was, is still playoff-caliber
- CON - Struggled with pass protection last season
- CON - Carson Palmer is essentially the same player as Romo and continuity gives him a considerable edge in a heads-up decision
Update 3/10: My initial ideas hold up well here, provided trade negotiations fall through and Romo does indeed hit free agency.
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I would consider Kansas City as Romo's best-case scenario even though many would think of Denver or Houston in this regard. With any kind of QB play, the Chiefs would have played in the AFC Championship last season, and they seem to be a team still on the rise. However, as I noted before, Andy Reid loves Alex Smith, who is a much more stable option than Romo. Pursuing the long time Dallas QB is a risk I don't see KC taking. Something similar could be said about the Cardinals. While a less attractive overall destination, I still think Romo would have to jump at an offer to start for Bruce Arians. But they too would be gambling big time with a swap of aging and fragile QBs in decline. It's far more likely Arizona drafts a QB.
THE SENSIBLE
Chicago Bears
- PRO - Apparently QB-needy after giving up on Jay Cutler
- PRO - Legitimately exciting ground game led by Jordan Howard
- PRO - John Fox can still coach, even if he isn't what he once was
- CON - Not quite in the same win-now situation as the teams above
- CON - #1 receiver Alshon Jeffery set to hit free agency
- CON - Defense is still a work in progress
San Francisco 49ers
- PRO - Incredibly QB-needy
- PRO - Promising new regime headed by quality offensive mind Kyle Shanahan
- CON - Roster is depleted and severely lacking in marquee talent on both sides of the ball
Update 3/10: The Bears and Niners are now extreme long shots as the Broncos and Texans have already betrayed their interest. If trade AND free agency negotiations fall through with both of those teams, it far more likely will be due to a bold move by the Chiefs or Cardinals than a high bid from the Bears or Niners. We must keep in mind that Romo's top priority is a win-now situation.
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It looks to me, at least at this point, that the Bears are going to be one of, if not the top, option for Romo. They need a QB and although they are not a ready-made playoff team, there are some things to work with there and reason enough to believe they could be decent if they got higher quality play from the quarterback position. The Niners, on the other hand, are a much tougher sell in terms of short-term success. But they will almost certainly be interested in Romo's services and Kyle Shanahan alone might be an intriguing factor in the QB's decision.
THE DESPERATE
New York Jets
- PRO - Desperate for a QB and team leadership
- CON - Roster is gutted, offensive options are atrocious
- CON - Todd Bowles is a defensive-minded coach who hasn't done well coaching defense, and nobody has ever heard of new offensive coordinator John Morton
Cleveland Browns
- PRO - Desperate for a QB
- PRO - Hue Jackson is a good offensive coach who squeezed decent production out of Cody Kessler last season
- PRO - Corey Coleman, Gary Barnidge, Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson are not awful offensive weapons
- CON - Team is still far away from competing
- CON - Last season's best player WR Terrelle Pryor is headed for free agency
Update 3/10: The only scenario in which either of these options make sense to me is if Romo got no reasonable offers from any other team. Since things clearly don't seem to be playing out that way, both of these teams are outrageous long shots at winning the QB's services.
THE WILD CARDS
Jacksonville Jaguars
- PRO - The two Allens are an excellent wide receiver combo
- PRO - Team is young and seemingly on the doorstep of a breakthrough
- PRO - Gus Bradley has finally been relieved of the head coaching duties
- PRO - The division is very winnable
- CON - They have a QB who they hoped was a franchise player as recently as last season
- CON - They may be close to taking a step, but are still far from the top of the AFC
- CON - New head coach Doug Marrone is a question mark, although he was relatively successful at another traditionally weak organization
Los Angeles Rams
- PRO - Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin are supposedly very good players
- PRO - Defense is actually better than most realize
- CON - They drafted Jared Goff with the first overall pick last season
- CON - New head coach Sean McVay is a big question mark
- CON - Receiving options aren't very good
- CON - Pass protection was a mess last season
Update 3/10: I still reached some important conclusions below but I in all honesty underappreciated the demand for Tony Romo. I've championed the man over his frustrating career, punctuated by his appropriately frustrating turn as the backup QB of the most talented team he's ever been on. I thought he was the MVP of the league in 2014. But I just can't get over his fragility. It is very difficult for me to say that relying on him to carry a team through the season and a playoff run is anything but an enormous risk. But it is a risk the Texans and Broncos both appear to be prepared to take.
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Is Doug Marrone eager to win immediately and unwilling to endure the peaks and valleys of Blake Bortles? Do the Rams think sitting their prized QB behind Romo will be beneficial in the long term? Those are the big questions when it comes to these two teams. It wouldn't shock me if Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone jump at the chance to make a quick splash and make Romo an offer. It appears far less likely that LA will be interested in possibly hindering Jared Goff's development, and I'm not sure Romo would even be interested in a situation so clearly stacked against him.
The other two outside possibilities are the Bills and Redskins. I left the Bills off because they just restructured the contract of Tyrod Taylor and look to be moving forward with him. But they still could presumably try to bring in Romo to compete with Taylor. This is not something you would think Romo would be interested in, but if his options get tight, who knows.
The Redskins, on the other hand, bring up another interesting aspect of this whole equation. They have a QB (who I actually rated as a top-10 QB for the 2016 season), but they are apparently shopping him to the Niners. If Cousins does indeed get traded, it opens up Washington as a very sensible potential landing spot. However, we now know that Romo and Jerry Jones agreed on a list of teams he would not sign with, and one would have to assume the Redskins would be on this list. It remains to be seen if any of the other teams I discussed above made it to that list as well.
So what have we learned after all of that? While the list is long, I found that there are fewer strong possibilities than I originally thought, especially when considering Romo's preference for a win-now situation. Basically every single team ready to win that made my list (Broncos, Texans, Chiefs, Cardinals) would have to make a dramatic, franchise trajectory-changing decision to make room for Romo. And I honestly don't see any of those four doing it. After that it comes down to the Bears, Niners, Jets and Browns, or another middling-to-bad team (Jaguars, Rams, Bills) making a dramatic move of their own. Through all of this, I see the Bears and Niners as the two most likely realistic landing spots for Romo with Chicago probably winding up as his choice given these two options. But until the moment he signs, Romo will remain a very intriguing option for the Broncos and Texans, and I certainly wouldn't count either out yet.