NORTH CAROLINA - 6'2 1/8,'' 222 lbs
REDSHIRT JUNIOR
HANDS: 9 1/2''
ARMS: 32''
40-YARD DASH: 4.67
STRENGTHS
Adequate arm strength and accuracy. Can complete the entire spectrum of NFL throws but with less velocity and consistency than a true top-of-the-draft type arm. Good size and frame. Very athletic and an unexpectedly good runner. Shows comfort in working through his progressions, sometimes all the way back to the primary. Also comfortable throwing on the run. Good pocket mobility and feel for the pocket for his level of experience. Seems to have good attitude and leadership traits. Plays with poise and has demonstrated undeniably impressive play in late-game and desperation situations. Junior season numbers were jaw-dropping: 68%, 3,748 yards, 30 TDs & 6 INTs.
WEAKNESSES
Inconsistent. Perhaps streaky with accuracy is a more nuanced description. Will have poor, ineffective stretches and will also catch fire to string together terrific, game-changing and NFL-level throws. Not quite as big or fast as you would ideally hope for a player of his style. Not the quickest decision maker in the pocket and prone to taking some brutal sacks. Has some under-center challenges ahead of him after essentially taking every snap from the shotgun in college. Can sometimes lock on to a single target and get away from his progression reads. Throws into traffic quite a bit for somebody who only threw six interceptions last season.
NFL COMPARISONS
I can't get away from the Blake Bortles comparison. I really think they are similar prospects in that they're both big-armed, athletic, round 2-type talents that have enjoyed being lifted by hype and QB-demand toward the top 10 picks. Both showed charisma and efficiency on the field in their lauded final years at school, although Bortles had two full seasons of starting experience to Trubisky's one. Bortles also won a lot more games in his final season. They both have NFL arms but both struggled to really display that elite-level consistency and accuracy required of a number one overall pick. Each had his collegiate moments of notable crunch-time poise and playmaking ability. For what it's worth, I think Trubisky is a better prospect than Bortles was coming out, but only slightly. And I was really down on Bortles at the time. I didn't believe he should have left the second round, while I believe a late-first rounder for Trubisky is an acceptable price tag.
I also like the comparison to Jake Locker purely in terms of their physical attributes. They are actually remarkably similar in this regard. But I think Trubisky displayed a MUCH higher talent level in college and I consider him a far superior prospect and player to Locker. Jake Locker at #8 overall was one of the single worst QB draft picks of this century and he really belonged in the 3rd or 4th round, somewhere Mitch Trubisky will not come close to. Ryan Tannehill is also an interesting comparison.
FILM STUDY
The Sun Bowl against Stanford functions for me as the ideal evaluation point for Trubisky and it also happens to include what I think is the signature play from his lone campaign as the Tar Heels' starter:
This play basically shows everything there is to like about Trubisky in one shot. He shows pocket mobility and avoidability (out-maneuvering fellow top draft prospect Solomon Thomas in the process), does not shy away from the contact required to complete the play and delivers an astonishingly accurate and strong throw to the sideline for a big gain. This, simply put, is an NFL QB play and a good one.
The Sun Bowl is an ideal evaluation point not only because it was his most recent sample on tape, but because of the talent on the defense he was facing and the fact that several other important aspects of his skill set were emphasized in the game. First, we'll start with the bad:
I am honestly baffled by how few interceptions Trubisky threw in his junior season as he had only four on the year heading into this bowl game. He makes poor reads and throws into traffic at times, and will sometimes lock onto a receiver for too long on a play. These tendencies were under-punished during the season and probably over-punished in the bowl game. But I do believe the two above plays are indicative of the kind of mistakes he will be making as a young professional.
However, on the whole there was definitely more good than bad for Trubisky in this game. The above is a scramble play he made early in the first quarter which demonstrates his impressive mobility both inside and out of the pocket.
But by far the most impressive part of his Sun Bowl performance was the final drive of the game, in which he put together a comical succession of awe-inspiring NFL-level throws:
This first one was somehow dropped despite being absolutely on the money. He bounced back to hit Ryan Switzer at the goal line on the next play, displaying fantastic touch and accuracy in the process:
And then there was the drive-finishing TD pass, a standout scramble and throw across his body to the back of the end zone. The play was made even more impressive by occurring in the final minute of a hotly-contested bowl game:
The game against Pitt was my next favorite piece of Trubisky tape. There were several money throws in this one including the following:
Both of these throws demonstrate an ideal combination of velocity and accuracy, hitting the target on stride and with the appropriate amount of zip. These are the kind of throws that put a QB in the top-of-the-draft conversation. Trubisky would go on to lead an astonishing fourth quarter comeback in this game that included three consecutive fourth down conversions on the final drive.
Finally, we'll finish up with a couple of notable plays from the FSU game:
This first one is another example of Trubisky's athleticism, talent as a runner and ability to improvise as a scrambler. He could honestly have better scrambling instincts but this play would give an NFL scout hope that this area of his game could be cultivated.
The last one is almost mean to include. Trubisky's performance against FSU in Tallahassee was considered his breakout, was statistically impressive and UNC won the game (on a miraculous last-second 54 yard field goal). But Mitch was bailed out by a pass interference call in the final ten seconds after missing the above wide-open throw that would have put the Tar Heels into comfortable field goal range. It was a bad miss and exactly the kind of stray toss that comes up slightly too often for Trubisky.
throw_ology DRAFT GRADE
Late 1st round. Any earlier is, in my estimation, a stretch. A down year for top-level QB talent will make it virtually impossible for him to last this long, however.
2017 DRAFT PROJECTION
Inside the first 12 picks, likely even earlier.