TEXAS TECH - 6'2'' 225 lbs

JUNIOR

HANDS: 9 1/4''

ARMS: 33 1/4''

40-YARD DASH: 4.80

STRENGTHS

Tremendous arm strength. Claims the ability to throw the ball 85 yards in the air and I believe it. He can make all of the NFL throws, but the velocity on his tosses, especially in the intermediate game, does not always match his arm talent. Natural athlete and thrower of the football. Smart and effective runner as a collegian. Playmaker who will never shy away from an opportunity downfield. Confident, attacking mentality as a field general. Led the country in passing yards this past season, his second full year as a starter. 

WEAKNESSES

Inconsistent mechanics, which leads to inconsistent accuracy, especially when trying to dial up velocity on intermediate throws. Loves to use a variety of arm angles, sometimes to his detriment. Very nonchalant with his footwork and rarely sets his feet optimally for the intended throw. Has earned (and himself embraced) the moniker of "gunslinger," which is indicative of his tendency to throw the ball into coverage- a lot. Will need to completely reassess his aggressive approach as a pro or face the prospect of 20+ interception seasons. Tends to throw the ball up for grabs more often than he should. Will also need to adjust to under-center drop backs and pro-style offense after working exclusively from the shotgun in Texas Tech's wide-open system.

NFL COMPARISONS

Just hear me out on these, because my top two are both going to trigger strong immediate reactions. Mahomes is an unusual QB in today's NFL and hard to pin down but honestly Brett Favre is a name that continued to come to mind while watching this kid. Both have almost limitless confidence in their strong arms and will attempt any and every throw they deem completable. Remember, Favre coming out of college was a relatively unheralded "dark horse" type prospect who went in the early second round, and Mahomes appears set to have a similar draft story. Obviously Favre developed into a much more complete player, although the gunslinger label came to define him. Mahomes is just as much of a long shot to end up a Hall of Famer as Favre was coming out, but their characteristics (and size) are strikingly similar.

To bring this back down to earth, I'll throw out a couple more reasonable names: Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick. I'm not a big Cutler basher compared to most, and both he and Mahomes have gifted arms and quite a bit of bravado. Like Mahomes, Cutler lost a lot more than he should have in college, but he was playing in a very good SEC. Mahomes is unquestionably more athletic than Cutler though, and that's where the Kaepernick connection comes in. Mahomes is far less explosive as a runner than Kaepernick in his prime but both possess strong and wild arms and struggle to combine the proper velocity and accuracy in the intermediate passing game. However, Mahomes is a much more confident and competent passer on the whole than Kaepernick has ever been.

Cutler ultimately went 11th overall, Favre went 33rd and Kaepernick 36th. This is pretty much the exact range of possibilities I am anticipating for the potential selection of Mahomes. I would be frankly stunned if he went earlier, or fell later, than this 11-36 range.

FILM STUDY

I've called this play the "one throw to rule them all" as I believe it sums up what makes Mahomes appealing as a prospect and also the inherent uncertainty his future holds. This throw is simply incredible. Jon Gruden called it the best throw moving toward the weak side that he's ever seen. Obviously, his arm strength is on full display, as is his natural athleticism to so smoothly pull off such an unorthodox arm angle while throwing in full stride. He very much looks like a shortstop throwing on the run, and he is clearly showing off, something he loves to do. The chuck is also remarkably accurate, and it was far from the only he time he flashed stunning downfield accuracy in his college career. But the unorthodox nature of this play (and many, many others from his time at Texas Tech) will ring some alarm bells with pro scouts, who have to wonder how well his loose style will translate to conservative NFL offensive systems and how often insane throws like this one will get him into trouble as a professional. 

throw_ology DRAFT GRADE

2nd round. It's a slightly generous grade but with the current league demand at the position and a class lacking top-of-the-draft QB talent, I think a 2nd rounder is a perfectly appropriate cost for Mahomes. He certainly has the upside to be an NFL starter but undoubtedly comes with a high level of risk as well. 

2017 DRAFT PROJECTION

Late 1st round. I have long believed Houston to be a sensible landing spot for him at #25. Kansas City could also be interested at #27. If neither of these options pan out, a team (Jets, Browns, Cardinals, Bills) could trade up into the late first round to grab him. I will be surprised if he lasts beyond the first 2-3 picks of round 2.