Welcome to the debut of throw_ology's weekly quarterback-centric NFL column. After two (plus) weeks of regular season action, there's plenty to reflect on. So let's jump right in:
WATSON, KIZER LOOK LIKE ROOKIES (AND THAT'S OK)
DeShone Kizer and Deshaun Watson look like rookies through two weeks of the season. This should surprise nobody. Kizer never had the look of a ready-made Week 1 starter coming out of the draft and has actually fared surprisingly well through his first two starts in my estimation. Still, the game appears to be moving extremely quickly for the Cleveland QB, and while his legs are certainly a legitimate NFL weapon, both Kizer and the Browns coaching staff seem a bit too eager to rely on them. This is probably because Kizer has not looked all that settled in the pocket so far. But it is SO early in his career, and his size, arm and legs all look to be translating well to the pro game. Here are a couple of excellent examples of this:
Deshaun Watson looks further along in terms of his comfort in the pocket, but “skittish” is still a fair descriptor when it comes to his 6 quarters of NFL experience. Still, he had a game-changing spectacular rush TD in his first start as a pro and I think the zip and velocity on his throws and his overall athleticism look appropriate in the NFL, something that was a concern to some scouts ahead of the draft. Here was that fantastic piece of scrambling that proved to be the difference in Houston's Week 2 win over the Bengals:
All things considered, it has been a very positive start for both rookies and one that should have Browns and Texans fans excited.
A MATTER OF TIME FOR MITCHELL
To nobody’s surprise, the Bears are 0-2 and Mike Glennon is coming off a humiliating Week 2 performance against his former team in the Buccaneers. On the whole, Glennon has looked like himself so far this season, which is nothing more than a lower tier starter. It’s hard to imagine why the Bears were expecting anything else, just like it’s hard to imagine that they won’t want to take a look at Mitchell Trubisky sooner rather than later. The relative early season successes of DeShone Kizer and Deshaun Watson only make this all the more likely. It's Glennon for the time being, but Trubisky's ascension looks to be inevitable and imminent.
A WHOLE NEW GOFF
One of my recurring offseason themes was a sermon on patience for Jared Goff after a thoroughly disastrous rookie campaign a year ago. I’ve always liked Goff as a prospect, even if he wasn’t a truly ideal #1 overall QB, but it was hard to deny how out of place he looked during game action last year. However, the 2017 edition of Jared Goff looks like a whole new quarterback.
The top thing that has jumped out at me is his composure, command of Sean McVay's offense and comfort in his leadership role, all noticeably absent in his rookie campaign. His numbers have backed this up, but Goff has been even better than the overall stats suggest. The 2nd year QB has completed at 74% on third downs through three games with an eye popping passer rating of 139.4, is a perfect 11-11 with 5 TDs in the red zone and has a 140.4 passer rating when taking the ball from directly under center. Each of these demonstrates an important area of tangible improvement over his rookie season in the early stages of year 2.
THE DALTON DISASTER
Bengals backup AJ McCarron stood by his starter this week, claiming that Andy Dalton is the clear #1 and leader of the team. And he’s right from a talent perspective. But Dalton’s start to the season has been atrocious. Sure, the offense as a whole has its problems, evidenced in the early termination of offensive coordinator Ken Zampese. But if you’ve watched the first two games, you’ve seen Dalton make plenty of his own messes. This throw says it all:
A well protected, wide open third down pass that gave possession back to the Texans, who capitalized on Deshaun Watson's decisive TD scramble. Simply put, Dalton is too talented and experienced to blow this play. And there have been other appropriate examples of squandered opportunities. The situation ventures into "disaster" area when you consider what's at stake for the Bengals QB. Cincinnati can easily escape his contract this coming offseason with only a 1 year, $2.4 million cap penalty. Combine this with the likelihood of a coaching regime change and Dalton's 2017 slump, off the heels of his two best seasons, could cost him his job.
ELI'S PROTECTION NIGHTMARE
To some extent, it's ultimately on the quarterback, especially a decorated veteran like Eli Manning, to protect himself and/or get rid of the ball in time to keep the offense moving. Pre-snap reads, slide protections and route adjustments are all tools an elite QB has to use to navigate an imposing pass rush. However, if you can’t even make it to the bottom of a three step drop without immediately falling under duress, all of those mitigating options are rendered moot.
This, unfortunately, is the situation for Eli Manning at the moment. Never one to attempt much evasion of the oncoming pass rush in the first place, (except for one notable Super Bowl-turning play) Manning’s lack of pass protection this season has rendered the entire offense ineffective. And it’s not a new issue. Left tackle Ereck Flowers has struggled for multiple seasons now and the GMen have failed to score at least 20 points in 8 straight games dating back to last season. All that said, I’m certainly not calling Eli and the Giants dead yet, and if a protection adjustment can be made the offense may surprise with some sudden explosiveness in the coming weeks.
SHIMMERING SIEMIAN
I was completely unsurprised that Trevor Siemian won the starting job out of camp, but his highly effective start to the season has caught me off guard. The numbers have been impressive (65.0%, 6 TDs/2 INTs, 106.9 rating) but it’s his calm demeanor leading the offense that has really made him look like a true NFL starter. Also quite encouraging has been his 113.1 passer rating at 70.0% completion percentage on third downs so far in 2017, another indicator of his composure.
What comes next for Siemian is truly anyone’s guess. Denver faces a brutal stretch of upcoming games that includes a trip to Buffalo followed by the Raiders, Giants, Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles and Patriots. He showed flashes last season as well, but his effectiveness faded as the year went on, something that should be watched for again this time around.
NO LUCK FOR COLTS
The Andrew Luck situation is a complete disaster for Indianapolis on multiple fronts. First, it’s really hard to tell what exactly is going on with Luck’s surgically repaired throwing shoulder and recovery. It is apparent that the organization believed he would be ready to start the season, just like Cam Newton coming off a similar offseason procedure. But Luck has not yet returned to the practice field and there is no current timetable for his return to practice let alone a game. A reporter even asked Chuck Pagano this week if he expects Luck to play at all this season, which is a pretty good indicator of the confusion level around this situation.
Regardless of the surprise delay to Luck’s return to the field, he has been plagued by injury troubles over the past two seasons and a better backup plan at QB had to be a higher offseason priority. Instead, the Colts decided to roll with Scott Tolzien, a player they evidently have zero confidence in and this lackadaisical approach to the backup QB situation has essentially ruined this season before it even got off the ground. The desperate Phillip Dorsett for Jacoby Brissett trade has only made matters worse, weakening Luck's already thin stable of offensive playmakers and bringing back a replacement-level quarterback who gets the Colts no closer to competitiveness than Tolzien. Honestly, if Bill Belichick is accepting your trade offer, you're probably doing something wrong. At this point it's pretty clear that Colin Kaepernick would have been a really good idea three or four months ago for Indianapolis.
POWER 10
My first entirely subjective rankings of the best QBs in the game through two weeks. This list will change, probably dramatically, as the season goes on.
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Ryan
Alex Smith
Derek Carr
Matthew Stafford
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Trevor Siemian
THROW_OLOGY TOP QB RATINGS THROUGH WEEK 2
The new throw_ology QB ratings grade each players performance on a 4-10 scale every week. Here are the nine quarterbacks that have fared above the average "7" through Week 2:
Alex Smith - 8.5
Derek Carr - 8.5
Philip Rivers - 8
Tom Brady - 8
Matthew Stafford - 8
Matt Ryan - 8
Ben Roethlisberger - 7.75
Trevor Siemian - 7.75
Drew Brees - 7.25
COLLEGE PROSPECT RANKINGS
Ah, looking ahead to the draft. Great sport for Jets and Niners fans. Here's my first ranking of the rising college prospects for the 2018 NFL Draft:
Sam Darnold, USC
Josh Rosen, UCLA
Josh Allen, WYO
Baker Mayfield, OU
Lamar Jackson, LOU
Mason Rudolph, OK ST
The IN THE POCKET Podcast returns next week along with a new QB COLUMN so stay tuned!