A Song Of Wentz And Stafford

There was a nice little quarterback duel in Week 5 that has flown under the radar but showcased two of the most promising passers of the 2016 season so far. It certainly wasn’t the Sunday night game, in which Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning once again underwhelmed despite both being in seemingly excellent situations to succeed this year. It was instead Matt Stafford who prevailed over the young Carson Wentz in a truly exciting contest for fans of the position.

Let’s start with Carson Wentz and the Eagles, who looked solid again on the road after a week off. Wentz led the way with his already-trademark precision in the short passing game and his ability to protect the ball. In the middle of the game, he caught fire with a torrid 17-19 stretch for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns leading Philly back from a 14 point deficit. The game went south on 3rd and 2 from their own 45 with 2:41 remaining and Detroit out of timeouts.  With the opportunity to win with a first down, the Eagles decided to run for a third consecutive time rather than put the ball in the hands of their star rookie. Ryan Mathews fumbled on the play, and Wentz’s next pass attempt was a desperation bomb (which was not actually that bad of a pass or idea) that became his first career interception.

It was a fine performance, but not quite at the level of Wentz’s stellar form in the first three weeks. A big factor in this was an adjustment by the Lions defense, who frequently rushed only four allowing them to conservatively defend the deep pass, a departure from a blitz-heavy game plan used against him previously. It will get truly interesting for Carson and the Eagles moving forward in exactly the kind of late game, pressure situations that exposed them on Sunday. Dorial Green-Beckham, Josh Huff, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, Trey Burton and Darren Sproles make up a surprisingly exciting complement for the young QB, and if he can maintain anywhere near his early-season level, the Eagles will have many more opportunities for wins this season. How the first-year coach and quarterback will fare with these chances will be quite interesting.

The victorious Matt Stafford had one of his good days on Sunday, and on those good days he is one of my favorite players in the league to watch. He meets almost every single one of my talent checkmarks: huge arm, excellent accuracy, fierce competitiveness, surprising athleticism and scramble ability and an unquestioned leadership role. The thing he has yet to hone, one that is critical when playing for a team as flawed as the Lions, is consistency. Stafford is prone to major errors and can struggle to overcome them to turn efficient statistical performances into actual wins.

Sunday was a promising step because he did just that, overcoming an inexplicable and unforced fumble on his own 12 early in the third quarter after a near-perfect first half. The rest of the game wasn’t his best, but he got the job done by leading the decisive field goal drive in the final three minutes. Stafford has to be near-perfect on most days to give Detroit a chance to win. Thing is, he’s capable of reaching that level on most days. The big question left is will his “Stafford moments” disappear or define him.

Week 5 Game Balls

Ben Roethlisberger

He did his job in shredding an astoundingly horrendous Jets secondary (seriously the tape is even worse than it looked on Sunday). The Steelers offense is already scary enough, but it will become straight-up terrifying if Sammie Coates stops dropping passes.

Tom Brady

He said he was rusty.

Derek Carr

Led four-straight second-half scoring drives (including 2 TD passes) to build a decisive 10 point cushion after trailing by 8 early in the third quarter. Out-dueled poor Philip Rivers and lifted the Raiders, yes the Raiders, to 4-1. The breakout watch is so on for Carr.

Power 7

Yea so I’ve vacillated on the name the last couple of weeks. Sticking with Power 7. If you noticed/care, thank you.

1. Matt Ryan

2. Derek Carr

3. Ben Roethlisberger

4. Philip Rivers

5. Sam Bradford

6. Carson Wentz

7. Russell Wilson

Knocking on 7’s Door: Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady

Pickspatrick

My brilliant girlfriend recently sparked some fresh inspiration when she coined the perfect (and somehow unused, unless I’ve just missed it) nickname for Ryan Fitzpatrick: Pickspatrick.

Now the entire world of NFL analysis has come down on Pickspatrick (C) the past couple of weeks after back-to-back horrendous performances. He is now 10 interceptions deep this season, already two-thirds of the way to his 2015 total. He has the NFL’s worst QB rating at 57.6, trailing the rest of the field (Blaine Gabbert is 31st) by an astonishing 12 points. Funny thing is, I really don’t think he’s played that differently than he did last year. He’s been very unlucky at times (opposite of last year), and the rest of the team has been a mess. This is really the key difference this season: the rest of the team isn’t matching their 2015 form and it has pushed Fitz to play out of his comfort zone in forcing throws downfield while trailing by multiple scores.

Consider this: Pickspatrick (TM) has thrown all 10 of his INTs while the Jets have been tied or trailing. Unfortunately, 64% of his pass attempts so far this season have come with the Jets playing from behind, and the results have been disastrous. Fitz is not very good and was always a long shot to replicate his 2015 numbers. But he’s still the same guy. If the Jets can get it together, he’s capable of executing a conservative game plan to victory. And as painful as it is to face, he is still the Jets’ best hope at quarterback right now.

The Curious Case of Case Keenum

So the Rams are 3-1. In order to process this, I watched their Week 4 game against the Cardinals a couple of times this week. The defense is playing incredibly well, with Aaron Donald leading the way as one of the most dominant players in the league so far (seriously throw on the tape and watch him work). I was really watching for Case Keenum though, and he once again reminded me of none other than Pickspatrick (R) himself.

Despite Keenum’s inconsistent accuracy and average arm talent, he has an almost gunslinger mentality at times and has demonstrated a comfort taking risks downfield. This hasn’t truly bit him yet this season, and has led to a couple of critical big plays, but he has certainly toed the line. He has also been a surprisingly willing and effective scrambler and puts impressive effort into keeping the play alive in the pocket. Just like Fitz, however, his success or failure going forward will really depend on the team keeping up it’s hot start. He has shown that he is able to lead a conservative game plan, but I definitely have my concerns over how effective he can be playing from behind and maintaining his (only barely average) early-season level as the going gets tougher.

Week 4 Game Balls

-Matt Ryan

-Russell Wilson

-Derek Carr

Just a quick note here, I thought Derek Carr had one of the best drives of his career on Sunday in leading Oakland to victory in the final four minutes at Baltimore. It was exactly the kind of moment Raiders fans have been looking for and a legitimate step in a potential 2016 breakout for Carr. Oakland is now 3-1 and Carr has an excellent opportunity to stay hot at home against Chargers in Week 5.

Power 7

1. Matt Ryan

2. Derek Carr

3. Philip Rivers

4. Ben Roethlisberger

5. Russell Wilson

6. Carson Wentz

7. Drew Brees

Knocking on Seven’s Door: Sam Bradford, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott

Men In The Middle

A couple of QBs jumped out at me on tape and on paper in Week 3 for very different reasons. The commonality between them is a similar placement square in the middle of the top flight and below average QBs so far this year. Is either one ready to take the next step? Or is a tumble from grace the more likely path? Some thoughts:

Jameis Winston

We were all reminded of Jameis Winston’s youth on Sunday after an infuriating performance which saw him play well at times but stumble in a comical series of second half errors that led to a home loss against the Rams. There were at least four badly missed throws that would have likely changed the outcome of the game, most notably a sailed 2nd & 10 attempt from the 15 with 26 seconds left in which Vincent Jackson beat the zone to get free at the near pylon. It was a standard throw that would have ended the game. And then there was the debacle of a final play that saw Jameis tackled from behind in the red zone after he inexplicably kept the ball cocked and his eyes downfield despite wandering well beyond (like by 8 yards) the line of scrimmage.

Frankly, middle of the pack is a generous mark for Jameis through three games. It is worth considering though that the Bucs, due largely to the injury to Doug Martin and the incompetence of the defense, have become completely reliant on Winston’s arm (leads the league in attempts, including a whopping 58 on Sunday). As a result he’s 6th in yards and tied for the lead in TD passes but is second only to Mr. Interception himself Ryan Fitzpatrick in that distinguished category.

I do believe the much anticipated breakout is still possible for Jameis this season. But he’s now facing a sink-or-swim moment bearing the burden of responsibility for a first-year coached team with a defense that can’t stop anybody. May well be an uphill battle from here in 2015.

Alex Smith

We’ve arrived at an interesting crossroads when it comes to ultimate game manager Alex Smith after three weeks. Coming off a career season, he has truly been mediocre so far ranking 15th in QB rating, 9th in completion percentage, 16th in yards, tied for 19th in TDs and 23rd in yards per attempt. He also hasn’t (Week 3 aside) looked nearly as sharp or consistent as he did a year ago. However, he has nonetheless been generally effective in guiding the Chiefs to a 2-1 start.

Where it gets interesting is in my ever increasing suspicion that the Chiefs are a significantly better all-around football team than they were last season when they went 11-5. The much-maligned receiving corps is actually growing into an enticing one featuring four solid targets: Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce, Chris Conley and promising 5th round rookie Tyreek Hill. Charles, Ware, West and Knile Davis comprise one of my favorite total backfields in the league and the defense, led by the outrageous Marcus Peters, is off to a fantastic start.

It’s all right there for Smith, who looked better in Week 3 and will look to continue to build on that. He is in his prime, has developed a great rapport and fit with Andy Reid and has the team behind him to inflict some major damage on the league.

Week 3 Game Balls

Trevor Siemian

It was a breakout day for Trevor Siemian in Week 3 against the Bengals that once again demonstrated rapid development in the young Denver quarterback. Siemian flashed a bigger and bolder downfield arm with great success, an element that was lacking from the offensive game plan last season under Peyton Manning (and sorely missed). Most impressive was the fact that Gary Kubiak let loose on the reigns a bit and allowed him to finish the game with aggressive pass plays late into the second half. The result was a victory and this gem of a road line for Siemian: 23/35, 312 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTS.

Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan is my top QB of the season so far and proved why with a key divisional road win in primetime over the Saints. Something had to give between Ryan and Brees, who had both been very good through two weeks. Ryan prevailed with a convicing performance which saw him at one point lead five consecutive touchdown drives and finish with a tidy 20/30, 240 yard and 2 TD stat line. The obvious knock on him so far has been the schedule (Bucs, Raiders, Saints) but he can answer those doubts over the next three weeks as the competition sharply improves with games against the Panthers, Broncos and Seahawks.

Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz is now scouting outfit Pro Football Focus’ top-rated NFL QB this season and the highest-graded rookie through three weeks they’ve ever evaluated (his 90.2 mark edges RGIII’s 89.4 through Week 3 of 2012). He was scintillating in Philadelphia’s Week 3 blowout of the Steelers, completing basic plays with technique and precision while also punishing Pittsburgh’s secondary deep on multiple occasions. Simply put, the man has become the next rookie super phenom alonside the likes of Todd Gurley last season, Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 and Robert Griffin III in ’12. I will put in a word of caution: there is a ton of season left and no team will be taking this young man for granted going forward.

Super 7

It got no easier this week, as a true top class has yet to separate itself.  Jimmy G should enjoy his lofty status as he’ll be getting the boot from this list upon Brady’s return.  I maintain that it would be both professionally and fiscally prudent for him to sit Week 4. What he’s already put down on tape will be enough to land him his own job or get him paid. Or both.

1. Matt Ryan (2-1) Tied 1st QB Rating (119.0), 1st Yards/Attempt (10.3), 3rd Comp % (70.9)

2. Philip Rivers (1-2) 2nd QB Rating (109.5), 4th Comp % (68.7), 0 INTs

3. Jimmy Garoppolo (2-0) Tied 1st QB Rating (119.0), 1st Comp % (71.2)

4. Drew Brees (0-3) 1st Yards (1062), Tied 1st TDs (8), 1 INT

5. Carson Wentz (3-0) 7th QB Rating (103.8), Tied 4th TDs (5), 0 INTs

6. Matt Stafford (1-2) Tied 2nd TDs (7), 3rd Yards (985), 6th Comp % (67.5)

7. Derek Carr (2-1) Tied 4th TDs (5), 8th Comp % (66.9), 1 INT

Knocking on Seven’s door: Sam Bradford, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning

The QB Corner: Panic-O-Meter

Week 2 represented a fall back to reality after a deceptive QB bonanza in the season’s opening stanza. The numbers are still very impressive almost across the board for quarterbacks, but two games have been more than enough to expose some urgent situations around the league. Thus, I’m breaking out the Panic-O-Meter to share some thoughts on four of the most-maligned QBs so far this season.

Aaron Rodgers – Panic Level: 2/10

Mike McCarthy said this week that he trusts Aaron Rodgers more than anyone he has ever coached and I have been firmly in this camp when it has come to the QB’s recent struggles. But his lackluster start this season is far from an isolated anomaly. Rodgers has completed just 58% of his passes to a passer rating of 84.4 over his last 15 regular season starts, marks that aren’t close to average in today’s NFL.

I was more than concerned last season, but Jordy Nelson’s absence and protection issues provided some excuse for his suddenly erratic play. However the reality is dawning that Rodgers has been playing poorly for some time now and simply needs to be better. He aknowledges this, blaming timing issues in the offense. I think he’s uncomfortable in his own pocket and less confident attacking in the passing game. But it’s still too soon to panic. We will see much better football from Rodgers down the road.

Ryan Tannehill – Panic Level: 4/10

Ryan Tannehill has not been a winning QB so far in his NFL career. To be more specific, he has not been good enough to carry his team or poised enough to come through in critical competitive moments. This has again held true through two weeks in 2016. As per usual, Tannehill has been shockingly statistically adequate. And as per usual, he continues to demostrate several impressive tools. But the team is 0-2 and Adam Gase’s offense has been a complete mess.

Panic should be reserved for Dolphins fans who haven’t yet realized that Tannehill is probably not the answer. This isn’t really news for most. I have to give Tannehill and Gase a little more leeway before I jump ship. But the panic level will certainly rise if things don’t start to improve quickly.

Kirk Cousins – Panic Level: 6/10

Kirk Cousins was always an obvious regression candidate after his blistering 2015 breakout. But what we’ve seen from him so far this season can’t be chalked up to the law of averages. He’s been bad; he singlehandedly tanked Washington’s crucial Week 2 matchup with the Cowboys and has acknowledged rumors that the rest of the team is frustrated by his lack of poise.

Despite this, Cousins is 3rd in the league in passing yards and has somehow maintained a very good 65.2 completion percentage. The man puts up big numbers in an offense that has grown incredibly reliant on him and will continue to do so. But will he protect the ball well enough to lead the team back from an 0-2 hole? It’s a tough bet, made tougher by the pressure of the franchise tag contract he’s on. Crunch time in Washington has arrived early for Captain Kirk, who will try to pull out of the nose dive against the Giants in Week 3.

Jay Cutler – Panic Level: 9/10

Is there anyone left who thinks the Jay Cutler/Bears union is going to end happily? I have never been much for over-scrutinizing body language, but Cutler looks comically miserable leading the Bears and has demonstrated none of the competitiveness necessary to elevate the team through his play. It’s been quite the opposite this year, and a throwing hand injury makes it even less likely that he is about to begin a magical-14 game run. It feels like the end is near for Cutler in Chicago. Yet there’s also that $126 million contract that runs through 2020. Panic level 9.

Week 2 Game Balls

Matt Ryan

It was not a banner day for Matt Ryan versus the Raiders in Week 2, but it was an impressive gritty performance nonetheless as Matty Ice rallied from several glaring missteps to lead the Falcons to a road victory. It can’t be overstated how massive the win was for Atlanta, who had won just twice since Week 7 last year heading into the game. The most exciting takeaway here is the fact that Ryan, who has the league’s top passer rating through two weeks, can clearly play better than he has so far. If he can find that next level, Atlanta will have several more happy Sundays in their future.

Carson Palmer

Palmer was right back to his impeccable 2015 form in Arizona’s beatdown of the Bucs in Week 2, surely a glorious sight for Cardinals fans. He has yet to throw an interception this year and will look to build on this impressive performance as the Cardinals aim to rectify unfinished business from a season ago.

Sam Bradford

Bradford came through huge for the Vikings against the Packers and immediately looked an excellent fit in Minnesota’s passing scheme. Last week I mentioned the statistical similarities in Bradford and Bridgewater’s 2015 seasons. This held true last week, as Bradford’s 22-31, 286 yd, 2 td performance was pretty darn similar to Bridgewater’s 2015 numbers at home against Green Bay (25-37, 296, 1). Unfortunately the paradigm has already shifted for the Vikings, as the game plan will now be forced to adjust for Adrian Peterson’s extended absence moving forward.

Carson Wentz Update:

NFL scouting outfit Pro Football Focus ranks Carson Wentz as the top-performing quarterback in the league after two weeks. He has exceeded even the wildest expectations so far and has more than held his own next to the veterans, but his measurable performance has been far more league average [94.1 QB rating (14th), 60.6 completion % (24th), 6.6 yds/attempt (27th)] than elite. Still, he has been the offensive leader of a surprise 2-0 team and has a chance to cement his rocketing status against the Steelers this week.

Power 7

I decided to revamp the Power 7 this week. The new ranking is now based solely on 2016 performance. Which unfortunately disqualifies previous #1 Tom Brady. Don’t worry New England, I’ve been VERY impressed with Jimmy G. Expect these rankings to be extremely volatile over the next few weeks (this week was incredibly difficult).

1. Philip Rivers

2. Jimmy Garoppolo

3. Carson Palmer

4. Drew Brees

5. Ben Roethlisberger

6. Eli Manning

7. Matt Ryan

Knocking on 7’s Door: Derek Carr, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton

The QB Corner: Nifty Novices

I will state the painfully obvious up front: Week 1 can be deceiving. It makes no sense to judge a draft pick or a team’s Super Bowl hopes after the first game. But in the case of the four first-time starters in this season’s opening week, such remarkably solid and poised play across the board can’t be simply dismissed. Here’s what I made of their debuts, in order of most impressive.

1. Carson Wentz

It was a simply stunning maiden voyage for the second overall pick, who demonstrated composure, confidence, competitiveness, athleticism and a dangerous arm in Philadelphia’s blowout win over the Browns. The hype this week has been deserved and it’s frankly hard to imagine a better start to Wentz’s career. He had the 11th-best passer rating and scouting outfit Pro Football Focus graded him as the 2nd-best QB in Week 1. Now to throw some cold water on the situation: he doesn’t have a particularly quick release or short throwing motion, he holds the ball a little low (turnover risk) and he was playing the Cleveland Browns. Just last season, 2nd overall pick Marcus Mariota torched a terrible Tampa defense in Week 1, but it ended up being his best performance of the year and the Titans didn’t win again until Week 6. Wentz’s potential excites me and he clearly has the most upside of the league’s new starters. But struggles have to be expected as well this season.

2. Jimmy Garoppolo

It was apparent in the preseason and again in Week 1 that Jimmy Garoppolo has spent years observing Tom Brady up close. His footwork and throwing mechanics mimic Brady, especially his lightning-fast release, which was employed to high effect in the Patriots’ quick hitting offense. His arm strength is adequate but the poise he demonstrated in toppling the Cardinals on the road (best exemplified by his otherworldly 151.6 QB rating vs. blitzes) was incredibly impressive. He was also without Gronk and a fully healthy line in Week 1. I think it’s safe to say the Pats will be ok until Brady’s return. The bigger question over the next few weeks will be if Jimmy G can impress enough to deserve a job of his own in the future.

3. Dak Prescott

The excitement surrounding Dak Prescott died down a bit in Dallas after a tight loss at home to the Giants, but my interest in him only increased. He held his own in an intense game and displayed several promising qualities that honestly reminded me of a raw Russell Wilson. While he has miles to go to reach that level, he is further along at this point than I think anyone could have expected. Prescott will have to improve his accuracy over the course of the year and did not look as comfortable attacking down the field as he did in the preseason. He is also surprisingly not comfortable scrambling despite his excellent feet in the pocket. The Cowboys will continue to employ a conservative game plan with the young QB, who is certainly worth watching as the season continues.

4. Trevor Siemian

The least physically impressive of the 2016 Week 1 newbies, Trevor Siemian more than made up for his deficiencies with his poise against the defending NFC champs. His timing in the offense, which was notable in the preseason, continued last week as he was able to move the ball effectively in the short passing game. He isn’t much of a downfield attacking threat, but then again neither was Peyton Manning last year. The QB game plan in Denver won’t be all that different this season from last, and Siemian’s primary responsibilities going forward will be game management and protecting the ball. This formula was highly effective last season and Siemian has given Broncos fans reason to believe he can survive in the role.

Week 1 Game Balls

1. Andrew Luck

It’s a shame the Colts look like they can’t stop anyone again this season, because the good Andrew Luck has returned. He carried the team on his back once again in Week 1, fighting from behind for most of the game and showing off his trademark, jaw-dropping downfield accuracy along the way. Pro Football Focus graded him as the top first-week QB, and while that grade may be a tad generous, Luck was undoubtedly phenomenal. Most exciting is an interesting collection of Colts targets that surprised across the board. Phillip Dorsett was the standout receiver alongside Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton, and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle each turned in stellar performances. The offense line also turned in a halfway decent performance, although Luck still doesn’t look entirely comfortable behind them. If the cast can keep it up, it should be a mega year for Luck.

2. Jameis Winston

Last season was a stellar debut for Jameis Winston and his 2016 Week 1 follow up was yet another very positive step. He terrorized Atlanta with his trademark audacity in the deep passing game en route to a 122.6 passer rating and 4 touchdowns. He is already a smarter quarterback and a better leader than most would have ever anticipated and truly looks the part of the most promising young passer in the league.

3. Matt Stafford

Stafford is my QB of the Week after a criminally under-discussed 31/39, 3 touchdown, 340 yard game in an epic duel with Andrew Luck (which he won). I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Matt Stafford is a top five quarterback when he’s locked in. And boy was he ever locked in on Sunday, completing just under EIGHTY PERCENT of his passes at Week 1’s 3rd highest yards per attempt rate. Sublime numbers. Plus a game-winning drive in the final minute. The cast around Stafford will be the biggest question going forward. Wildcard wideouts Marvin Jones & Anquan Boldin were solid and Ameer Abdullah & Theo Riddick were ridiculously good on Sunday.

Statement on Jared Goff:

The Rams horrendous Monday night performance says nothing about Jared Goff’s development, nor does the fact that he was #3 on the depth chart. From the very beginning, Jeff Fisher warned that he would be cautious with the number one pick and that Case Keenum would start the season. His harebrained idea that Goff needed a game to “observe” rather than suit up also says very little about his ability to play now. It was never the plan for Goff to start right away and seemingly always the plan for him to play eventually this season, which will happen, and likely far sooner than Fisher would prefer. But please, let’s hold off on killing the pick or making the assumption that Goff is somehow egregiously behind schedule.

Week 2 Key Matchup

Tyrod Taylor vs Ryan Fitzpatrick

Both were awful in Week 1, and if either the Jets or the Bills want to keep pace with the Patriots ahead of Brady’s return, something is going to have to give here. Taylor looked like a shell of his 2015 self against the Ravens. He was wild, unsure in the pocket and surprisingly unwilling to attack downfield. And SO MANY PASSES THROWN AT THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE. Fitzpatrick on the other hand was exactly the same Fitzpatrick from 2015. A few good moments early overshadowed by bouts of wildness and another horrible game-on-the-line drive ending in an interception. With Forte looking great, it appears to be the same deal for Fitz and the Jets: if he makes the wide open throws and doesn’t tank the game, they’ll be fine.

Power 7

Same seven as the preseason in a new order and with a couple of others close on their heels.

1. Tom Brady
2. Ben Roethlisberger +
3. Aaron Rodgers –
4. Cam Newton –
5. Drew Brees +
6. Russell Wilson –
7. Carson Palmer

Knocking on 7’s Door: Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck