SCOUTING REPORT - QB3 JUSTIN HERBERT, OREGON

A quintessential hometown hero, Justin Herbert attended high school just minutes from Oregon's campus in Eugene before eventually signing with the Ducks, his only power five conference scholarship offer. Mid-way through his true freshman season, Herbert had already become the starting QB and hope for the future of a floundering program. The statuesque quarterback would go on to play for three different head coaches in his first three seasons as a Duck (Mark Helfrich, Willie Taggart, Mario Cristobal) but still managed to grow into the stabilizing force that eventually guided Oregon’s return to the top of the Pac-12. Herbert finished his college career impressively, capturing the 2019 Pac-12 Championship and the 2020 Rose Bowl, where he was the Offensive MVP, before heading to Mobile to scoop Senior Bowl MVP honors. One of the toughest evaluations in the draft class, Herbert undoubtedly possesses a high ceiling and starter-level potential at the game's most important position.

PROS

Imposing 6'6" frame and a fluid athlete for his size. Strong arm to all fields with an explosive release. Zippy velocity and good carry on his ball. Throws the sidelines with ease. Outstanding experience after 4 years as a starter for the Ducks. Intelligence and leadership are undeniable. Plus mobility for long runs as well as extending the play behind the line of scrimmage. Stands tall in the pocket and flashes outstanding ball placement skills, especially when well protected. Capable of full field multi-progression reads. Plays with an consistently even temper and continues to compete hard even when struggling. Can surprise with eye-popping off-platform throws.

CONS

Doesn't anticipate throws or attack over the top with nearly the frequency or success of a typical top-of-the-draft prospect. A cautious QB by nature. Accuracy and mechanics suffer under pressure, as does his foot work. Needs to be more consistent setting his feet and not settling for fadeaway throws. Wild throwing deep with examples of bad overthrows and underthrows on tape. Throwing mechanics, while effective in a clean pocket, are deliberate, choppy and inconsistent under pressure. Did not show convincing progress between junior and senior seasons. Fewest "dime" level throws in 2019 out of the top 7 QB prospects. Needs to improve his post-snap processing speed and decision making. Game-to-game consistency an issue as he plays with streaky confidence. Curiously was never given high-level passing responsibilities in the Oregon offense. Finished a four-year career running more than ever and throwing short passes or screens on over half of his total attempts.

VERDICT

It's extremely difficult to diagnose the inconsistencies in an otherwise very promising QB when it comes to Justin Herbert. Were his comparatively basic passing responsibilities at Oregon determined by the coaching staff's lack of faith in him or their own lack of creativity? Did the aggressive running mentality from the end of his senior season come from a smart tactical adjustment or an attempt to hide a dysfunctional passing attack? The fact that it's hard to tell is the whole trouble with Herbert and the thing that makes him a very scary proposition inside the top 10 picks. However, his size, athleticism, arm strength and rare flashes are more than enough to get a player of this experience level and pedigree drafted in the first round in any given year. He needs to be coached up, and probably isn't ready to play right away, but he will not last long in round 1.

PLAYER COMPS

Mitchell Trubisky, Blake Bortles, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz

GRADE

Mid-1st Round