Once considered a lock to be selected first overall, Tua Tagovailoa's true current status among NFL front offices is one of the biggest mysteries of the 2020 NFL Draft. While the devastating hip injury that knocked him out 9 games into his junior season solidified some serious durability concerns in the scouting community, his astonishing statistical production at Alabama is undeniably impressive. After famously emerging as Alabama's starter with his second half heroism in the 2017 National Championship game, Tua continued his efficient play and showed tangible improvements from year to year during his collegiate tenure. He will enter draft night as a tantalizing potential franchise player with an eerie lingering bust possibility.
A rare specimen in several categories: twitchy athleticism at the QB position, left handed and a lightning-fast release. Good velocity on short and intermediate throws. Flashes high-level accuracy and good understanding of proper touch, ball trajectory and placement for a wide range of throws. Enough arm to attack over the top of the defense. Great feet and mobility in the pocket allows him to extend the play. Plays with surgical precision and rhythm in a clean pocket. Absolutely lights up throws to the far sideline and slant routes, the combination of which strains the secondary in any game he starts. Comfortable throwing outside of the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield while evading the pass rush. Really throws a consistently gorgeous looking ball. Very comfortable pre-snap organizer and a fast processor for full field reads after the snap. Already advanced in using his eyes to look off defenders. Composed on-field demeanor. Phenomenal statistical production. Exemplary leadership and work ethic by all reports, one of Nick Saban's favorite players ever.
Durability is an unavoidable concern. Not only currently recovering from a major hip injury but his health status was a constant question during his time at Alabama. Also sees his level of play significantly drop when he's banged up. Sub-optimal height. Doesn't have special deep ball arm strength and does not successfully attack over the top at the rate of a truly top notch QB prospect. Too often drifts into gunslinger mode which leads to some ugly, forced interceptions. Not nearly as accurate or mechanically consistent when under pressure in the pocket. Played with an outrageously talented group of receivers who were wide open on the vast majority of pass plays.
Perhaps the most polarizing QB in this draft, Tua Tagovailoa is certainly immediate starting material in the NFL... provided he's fully healthy. And this will likely be the caveat that defines his career. The upside here is undeniable, especially since the league is increasingly favoring mobile, high-character leaders at QB over huge-armed statues in the pocket. Unfortunately the risk is undeniable as well. While he might be an obvious candidate for a draft night fall, the franchise player potential makes him a certain first round-caliber prospect who will be claimed by a team planning on making him their long-term Plan A at QB.
Russell Wilson
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