2018 nfl draft selection value report
1. TENNESSEE TITANS
The Titans managed to make a massive imprint on this draft with just four selections, getting plus value at all four spots and successfully adding to need areas. Rashaan Evans, Harold Landry and Dane Cruikshank are all likely to be starter-level talents and a team desperately in need of a legitimate backup to Marcus Mariota found exactly that in Luke Falk at #199. It's hard to really imagine a better handling of these precious, crucial picks, so props to GM Jon Robinson.
2. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
It's an extremely exciting time for the Jaguars, who just stacked up additional talent on an already elite defense and found great value doing it throughout the draft. Taven Bryan and Ronnie Harrison are good enough to step in and make an impression immediately and Leon Jacobs was one of the better value selections of the entire weekend. Will Richardson was also a savvy depth pick but I believe Tanner Lee to be a minor blemish on this otherwise excellent draft class. I don't project the former Nebraska QB as a viable backup in the short term or potential starter in the long haul.
3. LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Rams didn't have a lot to work with early in this draft and yet I believe they still added some very promising talent to supplement the all-star cast already in place. Unsurprisingly, the round value grade reflects this as LA averaged a 13-pick value on their 7 selections. Joe Noteboom and Jamil Demby are massive and athletic offensive linemen who are fantastic depth choices for the price while Micah Kiser and (co Big-12 Defensive POY) Obo Okoronkwo were excellent, high-effort college players that fit the Rams' new vibe well.
4. NEW YORK GIANTS
You have to hand it to Giants GM Dave Gettleman, as he maximized the value of his picks and added at least 4 quickly contributing pieces to his roster on draft weekend. Will Hernandez and Lorenzo Carter were two of the better value selections of the first two rounds and offer plus help in the short and long term to areas of need. The question here is the overall philosophy, as the Saquon Barkley pick set the tone for the rest of New York's draft. With the exception of Kyle Lauletta. The Giants have a young backup and had already passed on the opportunity at a far superior long-term QB prospect.
5. DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas had a very solid, if not particularly flashy, gaggle of selections this year. Connor Williams' fall from Round 1 seemed a given throughout the process, but the Cowboys did well to secure him with the 50th pick and he seems a fantastic reinforcement for that offensive line. I nailed the value scores on my board for Leighton Vander Esch and Michael Gallup, who were both taken right about where they belonged and will both see the field quickly. Dorance Armstrong and Dalton Schultz were smart Day 3 gambles and Bo Scarbrough in Round 7 was an outrageous value slot and fit for the Cowboys.
6. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Baltimore broke even on the round value but the reality of their group of picks was far more promising. The Ravens added the most overall talent in this draft and found value all over the board in the process. They acquired, by my evaluation, 4 players with First Round-type potential with their first 4 picks before sniping 7 consecutive players I liked on Day 3. First Team All-American DeShon Elliott and favorite Josh Rosen target Jordan Lasley were particularly savvy late-round choices. The overall influx of talent from the weekend was desperately needed and an appropriate send off for outgoing GM Ozzie Newsome.
7. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
It was an interesting weekend for the Steelers, who appeared to reach on opening night for a good safety that was off the Round 1 radar in Terrell Edmunds. They were clearly smitten and I have to give them the benefit of the doubt as they got good value on the rest of their picks and chose players I particularly liked on film at every spot. Mason Rudolph is a legitimate possibility as a long-term successor to Ben Roethlisberger and was a tremendous pickup at #76 overall. James Washington is an extremely compelling deep-ball fit in Pittsburgh's bomber-style pass attack and Chuks Okorafor could well wind up a starter on the offensive line. Good picks all around by GM Kevin Colbert.
8. NEW YORK JETS
It's kind of all gravy for the Jets after they landed Sam Darnold with the third overall pick, but the team still had several needs to address and managed to do so with appropriate value at each spot. Nathan Shepherd is a ferocious interior defensive lineman and seemingly excellent fit in Todd Bowles' defense, while Parry Nickerson tested extremely well in the pre-draft process and is worthy of a look at corner. Additionally, Chris Herndon and Foley Fatukasi were very smart swings at high-upside talent on Day 3.
9. OAKLAND RAIDERS
The first draft of the second Gruden era was absolutely all over the place, especially on the first two nights. By my count, Oakland reached for each of their first four picks even if they did manage to pick up four impressive athletes. Day 3 is where it all turned around as the Raiders made two of the best value selections of the entire weekend in Maurice Hurst and Marcell Ateman (also two of my favorite players on film). The selection of Florida punter Johnny Townsend in Round 5 almost broke my brain, however.
10. GREEN BAY PACKERS
The three WR selections along with two CBs reminds me of a (unsuccessful) strategy Green Bay attempted a couple of years ago to solve their RB issue by choosing three backs. Hopefully, Brian Gutekunst has more luck with this than his predecessor, but the silver lining is the fact that he found solid value on the group of those picks. Cole Madison and James Looney were both sneaky good picks as well. Passing on Calvin Ridley in Round 1 only to pick another (quite possibly better) CB in Round 2 could end up being a seriously regrettable decision.
11. CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Bengals played the board well, especially on Day 2, when they added two potential starters at plus value in Sam Hubbard and Malik Jefferson. Their first pick, Billy Price, is a talented and violent player who should compete to start on day one. Mark Walton is an exciting addition to the backfield and a seeming good fit while Andrew Brown was a nice snag at #158. Also interesting is their selection of Toledo QB Logan Woodside late in Round 7, who is reminiscent of Andy Dalton and could become a reliable backup.
12. WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Washington did a great job finding value in need areas all weekend. The one loose pick, combine star Troy Apke, hurt the overall round value score but Derrius Guice, Tim Settle and Shaun Dion Hamilton were high-value, high-pedrigree selections that will be invited to compete for major playing time immediately. And that's not to overlook top pick Da'Ron Payne, who appeared to only be scratching the surface of enormous potential toward the end of his Alabama career.
13. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Vikings weren't in position to make much of a splash this year but still managed to take quite a few players I liked for plus value. Kickers in Round 5 will always hurt the overall round value score, but Colby Gossett and Ade Aruna are phenomenal Round 6 choices that both could have easily gone at least one round earlier. Converted TE-to -OL Brian O'Neill's plus athleticism makes him a versatile high-potential player to watch in the coming seasons.
14. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Seattle provided perhaps the biggest shock of Round 1 with their selection of highly productive and explosive college star Rashad Penny. They clearly were in love and traded back to get a more reasonable value on him. They bounced back with outstanding value additions on four of their next five picks. Rasheem Green and Shaquem Griffin popped on tape, Tre Flowers was one my personal favorites in the class and Jamarco Jones was a steal as a potential starter at #168.
15. CHICAGO BEARS
The round score was ultimately mediocre but I think Chicago did a very solid job this year. Roquan Smith was one of my favorite playmaking defenders in the draft, James Daniels seems like a lock as a plus starter and Anthony Miller was a production machine who will be a great tool for Mitchell Trubisky. Kylie Fitts and Javon Wims were smart Day 3 fliers who look to be interesting fits as edge rush and deep threat options, respectively.
16. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
It's a rare year that I'm not impressed with Bill Belichick's draft maneuverings and this time was no different, and the Patriots grabbed players I love all weekend. Bulldogs Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel were my #11 and #17 overall prospects so they were a pair of steals on opening night that look sure to become critical components of the offense moving forward. Duke Dawson is a natural talent whose slightly early selection can be easily forgiven. Belichick also sniffed out my dark horse QB prospect of the draft, LSU's Danny Etling, with the first pick of Round 7. The seeming reach for Purdue LB Ja'whaun Bentley is the choice that brought down what would have been a much better overall round score.
17. ARIZONA CARDINALS
Cardinals fans should be thrilled with the exciting, franchise-altering additions made on the first two nights. Josh Rosen arrives to become the long-term QB solution and could well see the field quickly. Christian Kirk was one of my favorite offensive players this year and Arizona grabbed him at a solid value, while Mason Cole should be an impact contributor on a needy offensive line. The Chase Edmunds pick graded poorly but I would have had him higher on my board if not for the low level of competition he faced over the course of his impressive college career.
18. HOUSTON TEXANS
Strangely enough, I actually had Jordan Thomas higher on my tight end board than Jordan Akins despite the fact that Houston ultimately took the UCF target a full 113 picks ahead of his Miss St counterpart. That bit of curiousness aside, the Texans found good value in this draft, especially in their first two selections. Justin Reid and Martinas Rankin should be immediate impact contributors. GM Brian Gaine also picked up one of the more promising edge rushers in the class in Duke Ejiofor almost three full rounds behind where I projected him.
19. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The round value score for Indianapolis is too harsh, as GM Chris Ballard clearly prioritized athleticism in this draft and succeeded in adding a surprising number of high-ceiling prospects. Quenton Nelson was my top overall player, while Darius Leonard and Braden Smith are both seemingly sure-fire starters that were probably underranked on my board. Nyheim Hines and Deon Cain are explosive talents I really enjoyed watching and are exciting support pieces for Andrew Luck, who has to also be ecstatic at the addition of both 2017 First-Team All America guards.
20. MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Dolphins' round value score was compromised by some of their Day 3 picks. but the reality of the weekend was mostly bright for Miami fans. Chris Grier and Mike Tannenbaum found good value in adding four immediate-impact, high-potential players in their first five picks. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a talent and leadership upgrade for the defense while Mike Gesicki and Kalen Ballage look to be smartly-chosen fits for Adam Gase's offense. Also interesting was their selection of Ohio State LB Jerome Baker with pick #73 one year after taking OSU LB Raekwon McMillan at #54. McMillan's return from injury will mean Miami will be adding two Day 2 Ohio State LBs to their defense this season.
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Los Angeles made one of the best selections of Night 1 as Derwin James somehow landed in their laps at #17. GM Tom Telesco made several other smart additions over the remainder of the weekend, but seemingly emphasized his eye over demand/value with these picks. Round value score aside, I loved Uchenna Nwosu on film at USC and see him as a perfect complimentary fit in the Chargers' already stacked defense. Much of the same could be said about NC State's Justin Jones. Dylan Cantrell and Justin Jackson were sneaky late Day 3 fliers and both will be interesting to watch as they compete for a role on this talented roster.
22. BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills sacrificed great overall top-100 positioning to trade up for Wyoming QB Josh Allen, a long-term project whose future is murky at best. Still, they needed a franchise guy and they made an aggressive move to secure their man, hard to knock them for that. GM Brandon Beane got good value on versatile and extremely high-upside LB Tremaine Edmunds at #16 and potential starter on the offensive line Wyatt Teller was one of my favorite picks of Day 3.
23. CAROLINA PANTHERS
It was hit or miss for the Panthers this year in my opinion, but the hits were exciting. They slightly reached for Maryland WR DJ Moore in Round 1 but they needed a new target for Cam Newton. Carolina was able to find value in adding ultra-athletic TE prospect Ian Thomas with the first pick of Day 3. Donte Jackson and Marquis Haynes could certainly both evolve into critical parts of the defense and were both selected nearly a full round late.
24. DETROIT LIONS
It's never a very good sign when your Round 3 pick is astonished to hear his name called, and Detroit's pick #82 Tracy Walker was not in my top 265 prospects. A curious one for sure, but the rest of the Lions' selections were fairly solid. Standout value choices were the physically talented Da'Shawn Hand and massive Tyrell Crosby, either of whom could easily wind up impact players for Detroit.
25. DENVER BRONCOS
The overall round value score should go out the window on this one, as the Broncos secured the player they coveted most in the whole draft in Bradley Chubb and proceeded to add much more talent over the course of the weekend. High-potential WR prospect Courtland Sutton was grabbed at a value spot and every one of their subsequent picks could well work out to be significant Sunday contributors in Denver. John Elway and Company appear to be aware that they needed a talent injection and boy did they deliver with this class.
26. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Tampa Bay's draft didn't grade out very well, but I understood where almost every single one of these picks were coming from as the Bucs selected several players I'm high on. Vita Vea was at one point a top-5 player on my board and durability issues are the only thing keeping me from from proclaiming Ronald Jones an impending breakout star. I wasn't as high on MJ Stewart as many others, but the Carlton Davis pick negates the risk even if it's an ominous sign for 2016 First Round pick Vernon Hargreaves. Grabbing a player of the quality of Jack Cichy at #202 was a big Day 3 coup.
27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Trading up for Marcus Davenport was a slightly perplexing move by New Orleans and things just got stranger from there over the course of the weekend. The round value grade would have been catastrophic and league-worst if not for the inspired selection of Will Clapp in Round 7. None of these other picks particularly stand out, even if Tre'Quan Smith and Natrell Jamerson are worth keeping an eye on.
28. ATLANTA FALCONS
Throw the round value score out here, I absolutely loved the Falcons' top two picks. I strongly believe several teams will regret sleeping on Calvin Ridley and Isaiah Oliver is a CB with definite starting potential who was had with good value at the end of Round 2. The other four picks didn't grade particularly well (Ito Smith was the only one that made my top 265) but they were all players I enjoyed scouting and probably all should have made my final board. In the end, it was certainly a better draft for Atlanta than the value numbers here suggest.
29. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
It was not a very ambitious draft for Howie Roseman and the Eagles, who seemed more interested in plugging holes in their excellent roster with players they really liked rather than finding value with their picks. Dallas Goedert is a fascinating TE prospect with outstanding hands and receiving instincts and the clear standout here. Josh Sweat was graded as the only plus-value selection of their weekend and it's hard to get too excited about any of their other picks considering the players on the board at the time of those choices. Still, one would be wise to trust Roseman and his feel for fit and need with this particular group.
30. CLEVELAND BROWNS
I have to say, it's pretty disappointing to be looking at an average round grade of well over one full round under value for the slate of picks in this absolutely critical draft for the Browns. The clear bright side is that the team added a lot of exciting players, value be damned. Unfortunately, the picks vs what was available on the board just don't look right for 4 out of their first 5 selections as better players in similar roles were taken within a pick or two in every case. Talented as he is, the use of pick #105 on troubled wideout Antonio Callaway makes absolutely no sense. The Nick Chubb and Genard Avery picks were very good and finding their future QB in Baker Mayfield can't be overlooked, even if he very likely wasn't the best or even 2nd best option available to them.
31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
For the second year in a row, John Lynch established that he pays no mind to conventional wisdom or consensus demand when he selects players in the draft, so a round value score really doesn't mean much here. I loved the Mike McGlinchey pick as a potential franchise cornerstone offensive line piece and the perfect compliment to finding and signing their long-term QB solution. Dante Pettis and Fred Warner are a couple of exciting athletes and intriguing fits that I was also high on.
32. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
I like Breeland Speaks but not as much as the Chiefs, who used their only pick of the first two rounds on the #115 player on my board. Kansas City was the only team in this draft that missed out on my entire top 100 and they struggled to find value with the rest of their selections too. Derrick Nnadi and Armani Watts were both players I liked, however, and should be watched as potential year one contributors.
