With the NFL Combine quickly approaching, here are the six most notable players to keep an eye on in Indianapolis.
#1 Kyler Murray - Oklahoma, RS JUNIOR
Kyler Murray kept the pro football world on edge for months during a stunning Heisman-winning season at Oklahoma that vaulted the 5’9” MLB-draftee into the forefront of NFL Draft conversation. The undersized QB has, for the foreseeable future, committed to pro football. Although his stature, struggles against Alabama and success against bad Big 12 defenses are legitimate knocks, Murray possesses a first round passing skill set. He is an instinctive and explosive playmaker with a natural aptitude for both ball placement and touch. He is also a surprisingly dangerous and accurate downfield attacker.
Make no mistake about it though, an NFL team will have to build a new offensive identity around Murray that allows him to thrive with his size and skills. Something akin to what the Bears did with rookie year Mitchell Trubisky, but even more severe. The league has been moving more in the direction of players with Murray’s general skill set over traditional pocket passers, so the forced offensive adaptation for a QB-needy franchise such as the Jaguars or Dolphins could be interpreted as a hidden positive more than an obvious con. One team likely to see it as a negative is the rigid Giants combo of Dave Gettleman and Pat Shurmur.
Murry’s overall long-term commitment to football will be a concern for NFL front offices, as any hint at the possibility of bailing on football in the future will essentially nullify his viability as a franchise’s #1 option. He has also demonstrated a willingness to leverage his multi-sport ability for norm-breaking financial negotiations with the A’s. It’s hard to discern at this stage how much the baseball option will ultimately factor into the way teams view Murray but it could become significant, especially if he begins to slide on draft day.
Right now, I have Murray graded as the top QB prospect in this class heading into the Combine. He will be the most intensely scrutinized player in the pre-draft process, and because of the unique nature of his prospect status he has some work left to do in winning over NFL GMs over the next two months. A year ago, Lamar Jackson passed on an opportunity to light up the Combine. Murray has the skill set to use the week to solidify his first round status.
#2 Dwayne Haskins - Ohio State, RS SOPH
The one-year OSU starter surprised the college football world by nearly capturing the Heisman Trophy a season after the departure of JT Barrett. His eye-popping numbers and Heisman/Maxwell candidacy obscured a somewhat bumpy season marred by inconsistency. However, Haskins’ size, arm and pocket passing ability have rightly placed him in the early first round conversation.
Despite the bumps in the road, Haskins demonstrated the ability to execute in a precision offense very convincingly in 2018. His velocity, accuracy and ball placement inside 15 yards were consistently impressive and he showed a pro-level ability to read defenses and complete big time throws. Unfortunately, Haskins was not asked to attack downfield very often and there were only a few games in which his downfield arm was truly a threat. There were also times when he very clearly struggled to finish plays over the top.
Haskins has almost no mobility and is significantly affected by pocket pressure. He has an unusual throwing motion that seems to impact his accuracy in poor streaks more than the speed of his release. Haskins is a surgeon in the short and intermediate passing game when everything lines up, however. Ball placement, timing and velocity led to big yards after catch plays consistently last season.
Haskins is one of the favorites to emerge from the Combine as the popular QB1 from this class. He can certainly help his stock with a good throwing drill and eventual pro day, but it seems for this prospect it will more come down to which teams are willing to overlook the lack of overwhelming tape evidence of top-level passing ability in the interest of bringing in a scheme fit who is relatively ready to see the field. The Giants or Jaguars come to mind as possibilities to keep an eye on.
#3 Daniel Jones - Duke, RS JUNIOR
Much has been made of Daniel Jones’ tutelage under Peyton Manning-mentor David Cutcliffe in Duke’s advanced passing offense, and while that might indeed be attractive to NFL GMs, Jones presents an extremely intriguing skill set on his own. His size, athleticism and arm strength all put him undoubtedly in the first or second day draft range. Jones also has a demonstrated a propensity for extremely impressive downfield and anticipation throws into tight windows, a talent largely subverted by the terrible week to week performance of his receiving corps at Duke.
Jones is a well-rounded athlete at QB, someone in the mold but of not nearly as gifted as Sam Darnold. He’s big, strong, runs surprisingly well (especially near the goal line) and was probably the most consistent executor of high-level post-snap reads out of the top QBs in this class. I believe he also showed as much arm talent on film as Drew Lock and is capable of every throw on the field. On the flip side, there were multiple occasions when he fell out of rhythm, forced bad throws and lost his composure in the pocket. He lost the last regular season game of his college career 59-7 to Wake Forest.
Despite limited offensive help, Jones still managed to post some impressive numbers in his college career and has plenty of room to grow as a professional. He did not impress scouts during the week of practice in Mobile for the Senior Bowl, however he bounced back to be named MVP of the game itself. His combine performance will be extremely scrutinized and he will be closely compared against Drew Lock over the next two months.
#4 Will Grier - West Virginia, RS SENIOR
It was a complicated path for Will Grier to this point featuring controversy and inconsistency as well as incredible throw after incredible throw. After starting his career at Florida looking like a sure-fire first round pick, Grier was slapped with a season-ending, year-long PED suspension and left the school. He resurrected his career at West Virginia, to the tune of placing himself squarely in the Heisman conversation this past season before being left in the dust in the final weeks.
Grier shows perhaps the best natural propensity for anticipation throws of any QB in this class, and has quite an impressive reel of NFL-level passes from his career. He simply has a knack for challenging the defense accurately. However inconsistency, poor decision making, poor ball security, less-than-ideal size, that bizarre PED suspension and his age (24 by draft day) are significant gripes that are difficult to ignore. I am higher on Grier than most of the scouting community, simply because of his resume of great throws on film. But there are too many clear knocks for him to have established obvious first round value at this point.
#5 Drew Lock - Missouri, SENIOR
The darling of the scouting community in the early draft process, 6’4” three-year Missou starter Drew Lock certainly has some undeniable pro tools. Particularly notable is his downfield throwing ability, which is the most natural and comfortable area of his game. Lock has close to the best arm in this draft and can get good velocity on his throws in the short, intermediate and long pass games. He was also forged in the heat of the SEC, and did not benefit from the easy statistics that most of his rival prospects enjoyed.
However the same red flags that prevented him from having more wins and statistical success at Missouri have me very suspicious about his next-level potential. Lock has demonstrated issues with short and intermediate accuracy and decision making. He has awkward mechanics on non-downfield throws and has been prone to catastrophic turnovers on multiple occasions.
He boosted his stock during Senior Bowl practices in Mobile, reportedly responding well to pro-style concepts. His combine throwing drill will also be heavily scrutinized and Lock will likely be competing up until draft day with Daniel Jones to be the 2nd or 3rd QB taken. At this stage, I would be much more comfortable grading him in the second round range.
#6 Tyree Jackson - Buffalo, RS JUNIOR
The most enigmatic prospect in this class, Jackson enjoyed a breakout season in his third year as Buffalo’s starter and has the size (an astonishing 6’7” and 245 pound frame) and arm talent to merit serious second day draft consideration. He is a bomber who loves attacking downfield and is capable of doing so at an impressively high level when on his game. A huge arm, natural touch and good pocket feel allow him to complete some truly scary plays.
Accuracy and inconsistency were unavoidable road blocks though and it is clear that Jackson is still in need of significant refinement. He did not demonstrate anything near mastery in reading the field or effectively working his progressions over the course of his college career and is still pretty clearly not out of the “awkward” stage of his athletic development. Despite this, Jackson will be watched carefully at the Combine by NFL front offices and should be. His combination of size and NFL arm talent makes him potentially the best value pick and long-term project out of this year’s quarterback class.