If things have been feeling a bit Orwellian lately, the NFL agrees with you. Because for the first time since 1984, the two quarterbacks with the highest regular season passer ratings will square off in the Super Bowl.
Matt Ryan led what was a remarkable 2016 for top-end QB play with his 117.1 passer rating. Tom Brady finished second at 112.2. Back in 1984, Dan Marino led the league with a 108.9 rating and was trailed by none other than Joe Montana's 102.9. Just as the leader Matt Ryan is the presumptive MVP of this season, the top rated QB Dan Marino took home the honor in '84. The similarities between the two seasons don't end here.
The 1985 Super Bowl (of course representing the 1984 season) also featured the league's #1 scoring offense (Dolphins) and the #1 scoring defense (Niners), just like this year's matchup (Falcons #1 offense vs. Patriots #1 defense). This Patriots/Falcons Super Bowl is just the 6th top offense vs. top defense title game since the merger, and only the 2nd since 1990.
Lack of competitive playoff games should also be noted as a similarity between the '84 and '16 runs of each team. In 1984, the Niners rolled over the Giants 21-10 and the Bears 23-0 while the Dolphins beat Seattle 31-10 and Pittsburgh 45-28 en route to the big game. This year, New England enjoyed 34-16 and 36-17 wins while Atlanta cruised through 36-20 and 44-21. None of the four teams played in a playoff game closer than 11 points before the Super Bowl.
Spoiler alert, the Niners ultimately blew out the Dolphins in Super Bowl XIX by a score of 38-16, a game in which Miami was shut out in the second half. The game followed a trend when it comes to #1 offenses vs. #1 defenses in Super Bowls, as the top defense has prevailed in 4 of the 5 post-merger instances. As they always say, "defense wins championships." The only top offense to defeat a #1 defense was led by Joe Montana, who was supported by the #3 scoring defense that year and was, well, Joe Montana.
So is history telling us the Patriots are a lock this time around? Naturally, Vegas' line favoring the Patriots by three points just so happens to mirror the spread ahead of Super Bowl XIX, where the Niners and their #1 defense were favored by a field goal. With the historical evidence supporting it and the presence of an extremely in-form Tom Brady, not to mention Bill Belichick, it seems like a solid enough bet. But Matt Ryan has been nothing but dominant all season, and I do believe the Falcons offense is, on the whole, more potent than New England's. This is why I don't gamble on football.
*Bonus research: Super Bowl LI will be the fourth Super Bowl since the merger to feature the top two finishers in QB rating during the regular season. In addition to the aforementioned 1984 season, it also occurred in 1978 (Roger Staubach & Terry Bradshaw) and 1971 (Staubach & Bob Griese). For the 1972 season, Earl Morrall of the Dolphins and Billy Kilmer of the Redskins led the league in QB rating and each of their teams made it to the Super Bowl. But Bob Griese famously returned from injury to start that game for Miami and cap the perfect season.